Global temperatures could soon briefly breach climate threshold, scientists warn
The World Meteorological Organization virtually guarantees that one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, announcing Wednesday that a developing El Nino pattern will overlap with worsening human-caused climate change to push Earths temperatures into uncharted territory. While Earths temperatures have fluctuated wildly over its 4.5 billion year history, its well established that human emissions are accelerating warming at a breakneck pace, the rapidity of which is distinct from natural processes. After disasters at coal ash dumps, Biden EPA seeks to tighten loopholes Experts at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipate that global temperatures at some point in the next five years will, at least temporarily, spike above the 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 degree Fahrenheit) benchmark outlined in the Paris Climate Accords, an agreement signed by 196 countries at the United Nations Climate Change Conference on Dec. 12, 2015. That 1.5 degree Celsius number is compared to preindustrial levels. WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5 [degree Celsius] level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency, said WMO secretary general Prof. Peter Taalas in a news release. Although the WMO suggests the global temperature could temporarily reach that level, separate analyses have previously suggested a more permanent arrival above the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold is more likely to arrive in the 2030s. The WMO suggests theres a 1 in 3 chance that it will occur in the next five years. The World Meteorological Organization is warning of the following: Emerging research challenges link between jet stream waviness and climate change The past three years have featured a triple dip La Nina, or a global weather pattern born from a cooling of the waters in the eastern tropical Pacific. That fostered sinking motion in the air over the Pacific, in turn allowing rising motion and enhanced hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. Now meteorologists are anticipating a flip-flop, with an abrupt warm-up of waters in the eastern Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center at the National Weather Service predicts an 80 percent chance of a moderate El Nino developing in the coming months, with a 55 percent likelihood it will be strong. Theres also a 90 percent shot it sticks around into the Northern Hemispheres winter months. Earths temperature is known to warm during an El Nino. Thats why scientists are concerned about it exacerbating the effects of climate change, which continue to grow. El Nino is looming. Heres what that means for weather and the world. For six of the past seven decades, the warmest year of each of said decades was an El Nino year. Thats why its highly probable that at least one of the next several years, which will inevitably feature an El Nino, will be catapulted above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. Record heat threatens Vietnam's power grid Northern Vietnam could be short 4.9 gigawatts of power capacity in May and June as demand jumps Vietnam's temperature hit a record high of 44.1C (111F) a few days ago, with more heat expected https://t.co/gVLKMBeFob pic.twitter.com/glZldvayWh Since 1850, or before the Industrial Revolution, global temperatures have warmed about 1.1 degree Celsius, or about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. That may seem inconsequential, but subtle changes in temperature can have cascading ripple effects on the fundamental behaviors of the atmosphere and the innumerable land, water, ice and ecological cycles that interact with it. For each degree Fahrenheit the air temperature warms, the air can hold 4 percent more water. (For each degree Celsius, it can hold 7 percent more water.) That means temperature rises are accompanied by an exponential increase in the atmospheres moisture-storing capacity. Where moisture is available, flooding rains are becoming increasingly common. Where and when its not, drought is becoming more severe and more deeply entrenched. The warming climate has also been tied to more extreme wildfire behavior and increased areal coverage of land burned, stronger and more rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones/hurricanes, cold-season tornado outbreaks and a litany of other hazards. While 2016, an El Nino year, still holds the record for the warmest year catalogued by WMO data sets, the past eight years are the eight warmest on record. While its impossible to say with certainty where 2023 will end up, the year is already off to an alarming start. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said theres a greater than 1 in 4 chance that 2023 becomes the new warmest year on record, and a 9 out of 10 chance of it being a top-five year. After setting a record in 2022, for example, global ocean temperatures are running 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius higher than ever observed by satellites this time of year . Thats mirrored by record global ocean heat content a known fuel for strong hurricanes. In just the past few weeks, air temperature records have abounded worldwide . Thats been especially true in Southeast Asia, one of the most densely populated places in the world. On May 6, Luang Prabang in Laos made it to 110.3 degrees, beating out its 108.9-degree all-time record set just last month. Vietnam also broke a national heat record, hitting 111.6 degrees in Tuong Duong. Bangkok got to 104.9 degrees, its all-time record, and Cambodia, as well as parts of China, set records for the month of May. Heat records have been smashed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and historic wildfires are burning unusually early in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, suffocating the city of Calgary in a toxic orange shroud. Downtown Calgary from Crescent Rd and 5 St. NW obscured by wildfire smoke. #yyc pic.twitter.com/jM39Q2DJYp And on Wednesday, 35 weather stations in Japan logged their hottest May day on record. Each of the events is made more likely and intense by the effects of human influence.