The Only Way to Stop Climate Change Now May Be Revolution
Fed up with slow (or in some cases, backwards ) progress on climate change, environmental advocates are mulling desperate measures. Emerging at the head of this pack is arguably the worlds most prominent climate scientist: James Hansen, a former NASA researcher turned activist. So its come to this. Last year, a researcher presented a paper on climate change at the American Geophysical Unions meeting entitled Is Earth F**ked? which advocated environmental direct action, resistance taken from outside the dominant culture, as in protests, blockades and sabotage by indigenous peoples, workers, anarchists and other activist groups. Last month, the Philippines climate commissioner and self-styled revolutionary Naderev Yeb Sano held a 13-day fast in the midst of an international climate summit, just hours after Typhoon Haiyan ravaged his home country. In a tearful speech quoting Gandhi, he said : We cannot sit and stay helpless staring at this international climate stalemate. It is now time to take action. We need an emergency climate pathway. And only last week, a conference of climate scientists in London explored the theme of radical emissions reduction after noting that nothing that weve said or done to date about climate change has made any detectable dip whatsoever. Via a weblink, author Naomi Klein compared the fight against climate change with the struggle against South African apartheid, and said, an agenda capable of delivering radical emissions reductions will only advance if accompanied by a radical movement. Fed up with slow (or in some cases, backwards ) progress on climate change, environmental advocates are mulling desperate measures. Emerging at the head of this pack is arguably the worlds most prominent climate scientist: James Hansen, a former NASA researcher turned activist. In a provocative study published earlier this month, Hansen and a group of colleagues make the case for why radical action is needed. T he now commonly embraced international target of keeping global warming at a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels a hard-won, but politically negotiated goalis actually much too high, Hansen says, and we should instead aim for 1C. That would be barely a blip higher than current levels of global warming (around 0.8C), but still the highest level ever experienced over the 10,000-year course of human civilization . Our objective is to define what the science indicates is needed, not to assess political feasibility, the paper says. Hansens main point is simple: If the Earth hasnt experienced temperatures warmer than 1C as a result of natural climate variability for at least the last 100,000 years, thats probably about where we should draw our human-caused global warming line-in-the-sand. Beyond that point, things start to unravel pretty quickly. Environmentalists have dubbed this acceleration of warming the wheelchair curve : As warming approaches 2C, it locks in an additional 10-20 meters of sea level rise over the next few hundred yearsenough to flood every coastal city in the world. Ecosystem collapse would be virtually assured, as plants and animals that have evolved into precise niches over hundreds of thousands of years are forced to adapt to new conditions in just a decade or two. Even assuming we eventually stop emitting CO2 completely, reaching 2C could, the study shows, mean we remain above 1C for hundreds of years or more. And if warming goes over 2C, Hansen and his colleagues present a familiar litany of climate impacts: mass extinctions, stronger storms, and increasingly severe effects for human health, along with major dislocations for civilization. The studys key takeaway is that unless CO2 emissions peak right about nowwhich they are clearly not doingin just a few more years we will lock in a 2C rather than a 1C temperature rise. That will set climate impacts in motion for the next thousand years or so, barring advances in technology that are currently largely discredited as either too expensive or too impractical on the scale necessary to reverse the warming thats already baked into the system. As we reported recently, the UN has endorsed a carbon budget a maximum of one trillion tonnes of carbon emitted into the atmosphere to keep warming below 2C. To stay below 1C, Hansen et al argue that the world can burn only half this amount. To achieve this, they say, global CO2 emissions would need to peak immediately and decline three times faster than the rate currently being discussed for inclusion into the next global climate treatya 90% reduction by 2030. The current UN plan (dotted line in the chart on the left below) wont even be implemented until 2020 at the earliest. Even if by some miracle Hansens plan (the solid line in the chart on the left) took effect this week, he says wed still have only a 50/50 shot at staying under 1C. Basically, if we wait even a few years to implement anything less than a fossil-fuel starvation diet, momentum already built into the system nearly guarantees the climate is toast. To quote the study: The inertia of energy system infrastructure, (i.e., the time required to replace fossil fuel energy systems) will make it exceedingly difficult to avoid a level of CO2 that would have highly undesirable consequences. Hansen and his associates admonish the environmental community for doing the same things over and over againadvocating for renewable energy, recycling, and hybrid carsand expecting different results. The change that is produced in this way is much, much too slow, they say. Their study concludes with what can only be characterized as a call to arms: a global challenge akin to the anti-slavery and civil rights movements, begging the worlds young people to disrupt their governments and demand immediate action on climate change. In short, were talkin bout a revolutionor in the words of the paper, a human tipping point. Are there no other options? Hansen and his co-authors argue there is a sliver of hope the world could stay near a 1C goal if there were a bilateral agreement between the US and Chinathe worlds two biggest carbon emitters. Such a deal would need to immediately implement a gradually escalating carbon tax, rebate the revenue to its citizens equally per person, and place trade duties on any other country not willing to join in. That could quickly shift the world to a low-carbon economy, perhaps with enough cushion to prevent the most dangerous aspects of climate change. However, the authors dismiss this possibility as extremely unlikely. Another possible silver bullet, trusting technology to zap climate change via geoengineering (like sucking carbon dioxide directly from the air) is also a non-starter. Hansen et al calculate that the cost of immediately implementing free-air carbon capture, an unproven technology at large scale , would be around $50 trillion, though they admit that cost could come down a bit with future advances. In Hansens view, young people have the best reason to fight the system . He has said he quit his job at NASA so he could more fully embrace climate activism, including a plan to sue the government on behalf of younger generations for failing to act on climate change in time. (At least in the United States, trying to sue corporations would probably fail ). He explained his strategy of helping youth fight climate change through the court system in a recent op-ed for CNN . And indeed, the US military already seems to be preparing for climate-induced mass protests, the Guardian reported in June, based on documents leaked by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden. But as with all revolutions, the fight for the climate will need a catalyst. Its unclear what that might be, especially when the very consumption culture that forms the bedrock of the present-day economic system is so ubiquitousand also at the root of the climate problem itself. Young people growing up now contemplating their futures may have the biggest reason for alarm, but with a problem like climate change that feels complex, distant and abstract, it may be hard to make the urgency that Hansen expresses resonate broadly. And even if a human tipping point comesan Arab Spring for the climatewill it sustain its momentum or, like most of the recent uprisings, burn out or collapse into factional bickering?