Climate change is likely to increase migration
EVERY MORNING scores of buses roll into Dhaka, Bangladeshs sprawling, sinking capital. Their passengers, laden with bundles, step out into a new life. By one estimate, some 2,000 migrants arrive in the city each day. Almost all come from elsewhere in the country and most have, at least in part, been pushed by the impacts of a changing climateeither because of a sudden disaster, or because environmental shifts have made their livelihoods untenable. Such scenes will become more common in 2023 and beyond. Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, and South Asia are most affected. The most visible migrants will be those forced from their homes by extreme-weather events exacerbated by rising global temperatures, such as the extraordinary floods in Pakistan in August and September 2022, which displaced 33m people. The natural climate system known as La Nina, which affects rainfall patterns across the world, is thought to have been a contributing factor. In poor countries, the accumulation of catastrophe chips away at resources and makes each successive disaster more damaging. Climate change works in slower ways, too. Crops return ever-smaller yields; rising seas creep into villages. Global warming is a threat multiplier, aggravating other drivers of migration such as poverty or conflict. The World Bank predicts that by 2050, as many as 143m people (or about 2.8% of the population) in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America will be internally displaced by slow-onset climate factors. Contrary to the claims of scaremongers in the global North, the vast majority of such migrantsthree out of every fourstay within their own borders. Their home countries will increasingly demand that migration is factored into loss and damage fundingessentially, reparations paid by the rich countries most responsible for emissions. (Previously, most migration-related requests were framed as adaptation measures.) Loss and damage funding will be a big theme in climate negotiations in 2023, with a three-year international dialogue on the issue meant to conclude the next year. The vast majority of climate migrantsthree out of every fourstay within their own bordersMeanwhile, countries with large populations of climate migrants will work on more immediate ways to cope. Recognising that Dhaka cannot support the arrivals it receives, Bangladesh has tried to lure migrants elsewhere with the promise of jobs, school places and climate-resilient infrastructure. The most notable example is the port of Mongla, which, after significant investment, has seen its population increase three-fold in the past decade. Similar programmes are under way in Ethiopia and Ghana. Countries will also try to grapple with the rarer (but rising) phenomenon of cross-border climate migration, which has long existed in a bureaucratic blindspot. There is still no such thing as a climate refugee: unlike war or persecution, people typically cannot claim asylum on the basis of climate change alone. Yet recognition is growing, explains Jane McAdam, who directs the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at the University of New South Wales in Australia. In 2020 the UNs refugee agency updated its guidance, making a broader case for the protection of those facing environmental risks. The issue will re-emerge at the Global Refugee Forum in December 2023. But an official change is unlikelycountries less vulnerable to climate change do not want the formal obligation of accepting more migrants. Instead, progress will be piecemeal. In 2022, Argentina created a special visa for those displaced by natural disasters; Finland is mulling accepting refugees on climate grounds. Australia is introducing a scheme that will make it easier for Pacific Islanderssome of the populations most vulnerable to climate changeto go there for seasonal work. Similar measures are being discussed elsewhere. As ever, though, the best thing the world can do is tackle global warming by cutting emissions. Rachel Dobbs: Asia news editor, The Economist, Singapore This article appeared in the International section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline On the move