Six New Zealands of climate change: Which one are you?
Baby boomers are six times more likely to dismiss climate change than members of Gen Z, and twice as likely to vote, an in-depth survey has found. An online survey of more than 2000 people found those who actively reject climate change are a small minority - 6 per cent - and more likely to be men over 55. Most people surveyed believe in climate change and want societal action of some sort, but arent taking personal action to solve the crisis. The survey confirmed what many middle New Zealanders will know already - often, people simply don't think about climate change. While multiple studies have shown climate disturbance is already increasing severe drought, flood risk and fire risk, on average, people think any impacts on them are still 30 years away. READ MORE: * How to talk to a child about climate change * Southland local body candidates tackle climate change topic * Just like that, my generation is out of date The online panel - polled in November and December 2019 - was modelled on the Six Americas survey developed by Yale and George Mason Universities. Polling company Dynata conducted a similar survey in New Zealand for a climate action start-up, the 1.5 Project. With the help of funding from fitness business pioneer Phillip Mills and the Tindall Foundation, the study took a sample of 3500 and whittled it to 2034 to get a representative mix of sex, age, location, ethnicity and income. New Zealanders were sorted into six groups: Alarmed (14 per cent of respondents), Concerned (28 per cent), Cautious (8), Disengaged (27), Doubtful (17) and Dismissive (6). Those dubbed Alarmed are fully convinced about the seriousness of climate change and are already taking personal action of some sort. At the other end are the Dismissive, who actively reject climate change. They represent both the smallest slice of society and the oldest. The vast majority of New Zealanders sit somewhere in between. Some 28 per cent are classed as Concerned - theyre as convinced about the seriousness of the crisis as the Alarmed are, but arent personally acting on their beliefs, says Paul Winton, an investment consultant who founded the 1.5 Project. Concerned peoples behaviour is similar to the other middle New Zealand groups, despite their different beliefs, says Winton. Next come the Cautious and the Disengaged, representing 8 and 27 per cent respectively. Disengaged people are almost as numerous as Concerned, but, while they believe in the crisis when asked, they rarely think about climate change. Cautious and Disengaged are really at the epicentre of New Zealand, says Winton. They both have middle-of-the-road beliefs, but, interestingly, the Disengaged actually have stronger beliefs in climate change and stronger preferred societal responses. In other words, they believe but they want someone else to fix it. Next come the Doubtful, who arent convinced its happening. Unlike the Dismissive, the 17 per cent classed as Doubtful arent actively opposed to climate action. Their behaviour is much like the other middle groups. When asked to give more detail about their climate beliefs, the Doubtful sometimes said they were sick of it, or there was too much alarmism. Even those in the Alarmed group often rated another issue, such as homelessness, as a bigger priority. When people were asked to name the biggest thing they could do for the climate this year, about half the Alarmed were bang on about what would have an impact, says Winton, naming actions such as using less fuel or voting for politicians who support strong climate action. Others picked actions unlikely to impact emissions at an individual level, such as saving water. BOOMING VOICES The survey shows big generational differences. While every age group contains a similar percentage of Alarmed and Concerned people, Baby Boomers have many more Dismissive members. Boomers (aged 55-75) in the survey were six times more likely to dismiss climate change than New Zealanders aged 16-24 (Gen Z), says Winton. Gen Zers are 50 per cent more likely than Baby Boomers to consider the environment and/or climate change to be the most important issue facing New Zealand, but represent a cohort roughly half the size. That cohort (of Baby Boomers) is quite big and they vote a lot. They have a 90 per cent intention to vote, whereas for Gen Z, even when you only consider those who can vote, its more like 40 per cent, says Winton. That means there are roughly eight times more Baby Boomers who are likely to vote than there are Gen Zers, and they are six times more likely to vote actively against climate action. Women were less likely than men to be Dismissive, and more likely to be Alarmed or Concerned. That means the Dismissive are over-represented in the older male demographic that is most likely to be running company boards, says Winton. They are also more focussed than the Alarmed at influencing power. The Dismissive segment is really engaged, says Winton. They are writing letters to politicians. We actively engaged with a few of these people and they were really good about sitting down and talking to us about where they were. THOUGHT BUBBLES The survey found many people in the middle probably arent talking about climate change to their more worried friends and relatives. The Alarmed group told the surveyors they talked a lot about climate change, but mainly with people who agreed with them. Respectful conversations between people with varying opinions are crucial on climate, but we often avoid them, says researcher Jess Berentson-Shaw, whose consultancy The Workshop studies how to have constructive conversations. There is a hard-core group in opposition who are virtually unpersuadable, says Berentson-Shaw, but theres also a huge majority in the middle who care, but dont know what to do. This group steps back from issues they see as difficult and polarised, she says. Berentson-Shaw says people in the middle often believe extreme views are much more common than they really are. The more extreme positions tend to get amplified on social media, and that freaks people out, she says. It disengages the middle. As for the lack of voting by Gen Zers, Berentson-Shaw says young and diverse groups often feel voting doesnt work for them. They (older cohorts) know that voting works in their favour, so of course voting is something they see as useful, she says. There are all sorts of other things going on in politics that influence decisions, like lobbying, and access. She says one of the most constructive things young people whore worried about climate can do is talk to unpersuaded older relatives. People tend to listen to people they see as sharing their values, says Berentson-Shaw. Keeping the talk constructive will have the most impact, she says: Saying The house is on fire, were all buggered doesnt engage that group of people. You need to invite people into a better world, making it clear that it is urgent but also that there are solutions all around. HAPPENING NOW Previously, surveys based on Six Americas have been used to test climate-related opinion in Australia, Germany and India. Winton says its not easy to compare New Zealand to other countries, because some questions were changed - for example, culling questions about U.S.-style home thermostats for a Kiwi audience. There were consistent themes across here and Australia, though: Kiwis think climate change will not affect them personally for another 30 years, on average, and Australians are only marginally more accurate. In Australia, when they are asked when climate change will harm humans, the average answer is about 28 years from now, says Winton. So if you believe the fires of last summer represent harm to humans, clearly theres this massive disconnect between what the science says is happening and what people believe. Winton says its helpful to understand where people are at today, and where peoples interest drops off when it comes to addressing the crisis. About 70-80 per cent of the population believes climate change is real, which is encouraging, but a bunch of those people believe it's caused by nature, and even out of those who think its caused by humans, a bunch of them think the impacts are a long way out, says Winton. So we dont need to talk to people about whether climate change is real, we need to say, Actually it's not coming in 30 years, it's not after your lifetime, its next month. SIX NZs: WHICH GROUP ARE YOU? Alarmed (14 per cent): Fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of climate change and already taking individual, consumer, and political action to address it. Concerned (28 per cent): Also convinced that climate change is happening and a serious problem, but have not yet engaged in the issue personally. Cautious (8 per cent) and Disengaged (27 per cent): Average scores for Cautious and Disengaged people are almost identical, however the Disengaged have stronger belief in climate change and want stronger societal action, but display weaker behaviours and personal involvement. Doubtful (17 per cent): Generally question climate change or dont believe it is a problem, however their behaviours show they are not engaged in the issue. Dismissive (6 per cent): Actively disbelieve in climate change and want a weak or no response from society. Actively oppose national efforts to cut emissions.