Climate change could increase risk of conflict, says study
Climate change could have an increasing impact on the risk of armed conflict in the future, according to a new study. The study, published in the journal Nature and led by Stanford University in the US, analyses the results of past research on the issue. It concludes that if the earth warmed by 4 degrees Celsius - the path we might be on with no intervention - there would be a 26 per cent chance of a substantial increase in conflict risk. At 2 degrees, the chance was 13 per cent. The risk stems from extreme weather and related disasters, which can damage food production and farming as well as impacting on economic stability and raising inequality, the researchers said. However, while climate might make armed conflict worse, it is not the root cause of war to date. Poor socioeconomic development and bad statesmanship are much more influential when it comes to starting wars, the researchers said. READ MORE: * Defence prepares for climate change * Extreme waves are getting higher in the Antarctic Ocean, study finds * Flat whites under threat: World's top coffee species at risk of extinction thanks to global warming "Appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritising responses, which could include aid and cooperation," Katharine Mach, director of the Stanford Environment Assessment Facility and the study's lead author said . "Knowing whether environmental or climatic changes are important for explaining conflict has implications for what we can do to reduce the likelihood of future conflict, as well as for how to make well-informed decisions about how aggressively we should mitigate future climate change," added Marshall Burke, assistant professor of Earth system science and a co-author on the study. The latest analysis comes shortly after the release of other figures on Wednesday as part of an annual peace index. The Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) concluded that climate change poses a threat to peace in countries around the world in the coming decade, Reuters reported. Nearly a billion people live in areas at high risk from climate change and about 40 per cent of them are in countries already struggling with conflict, it said. However, different researchers have disagreed in the past as to whether climate plays a role in triggering civil wars and other armed conflicts. To better understand it, the Stanford-led analysis held interviews and debates with experts in political science, environmental science, economics and other fields who have come to different conclusions on climate's influence on conflict in the past. The experts, who also served as co-authors on the study, agree that climate has affected organised armed conflict in recent decades. However, they make clear that other factors - low socioeconomic development, the strength of government, inequalities in societies, and a recent history of violent conflict - have a much heavier impact on conflict within countries. The researchers don't fully understand exactly how climate affects conflict. The consequences of future climate change will likely be different, because societies will be forced to grapple with unprecedented conditions that go beyond known experience and what they may be capable of adapting to, they said. "Historically, levels of armed conflict over time have been heavily influenced by shocks to, and changes in, international relations among states and in their domestic political systems," said James Fearon , professor of political science and co-author on the study. "It is quite likely that over this century, unprecedented climate change is going to have significant impacts on both, but it is extremely hard to anticipate whether the political changes related to climate change will have big effects on armed conflict in turn. So I think putting non-trivial weight on significant climate effects on conflict is reasonable." The study suggested measures such as protecting crops, post-harvest storage, training services and other measures to reduce the risk. Peacekeeping, conflict mediation and post-conflict aid operations could also incorporate climate into their risk reduction strategies. The research was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, the European Research Council, the German Science Foundation and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research.