Backlash to climate policies is growing
If proponents of climate policies thought this years scorching summer temperatures and extreme weather events would propel the world to embrace rapid action to lower greenhouse gas emissions, they were sorely mistaken. If there is to be any hope that governments might address this issue, they will need a new strategy. Around the world, nations are choosing to prioritize economic growth and national interest over climate policy. Thats perhaps unsurprising for poor or developing countries, such as India or Indonesia, whose living standards remain far below those found in the West. But its also true of the economic powerhouse of China, which despite its large investments in renewable energy is still dramatically increasing approvals for coal-fired electricity plants. Even more alarming for the climate activist community should be the backlash to climate policies in Western Europe. Theres no major area in the world where policymakers are more aligned with green objectives than there, yet popular pressure in nation after nation is forcing governments to curtail measures designed to quickly progress toward net-zero carbon emissions. Germany is ground zero for these developments. Much of its industrial power comes from its mighty automobile companies, so the European Unions directive to abolish sales of gas-fueled vehicles by 2035 would have hit German manufacturers the hardest. So, it should be no surprise that Germany, along with other nations with important auto companies, successfully pressured the E.U. into allowing production of cars that run on electrofuels, which are synthetically made carbon-based fuels that are theoretically carbon neutral. Its likely this wont be the last time efforts to abolish gas-fueled cars flounder. Germany also recently backtracked on one of its signature proposals to ban fossil-fueled home heating. The uproar was so intense that the government, which includes the Green Party, amended its draft legislation and postponed forcing existing homes to replace traditional boilers with heat pumps until after the next election. Given the rapid rise in support for the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany , which opposes serious climate policies, even this compromise might be watered down in the future. Then there are the farmers. E.U. policy dictates a significant reduction in nitrogen emissions, which largely come from cattle farms. Efforts to implement this directive in the Netherlands has shaken the countrys politics to its core, with large farmers protests fueling the rise of a new party, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (known as BBB from its Dutch acronym). The party won this springs regional elections and might win this falls snap national election. Irelands farmers are protesting similar policies proffered by their Green-influenced government, too. Its not just economics driving this backlash; concerns over national security are playing a role, too. Norway, for example, is such an exemplar for green policies that electric vehicles comprised more than 80 percent of new vehicle sales in May thanks to massive government subsidies. Yet its Labor-led, left-leaning government nonetheless recently approved 19 new oil and gas projects over environmentalist objections. The reason? The invasion of Ukraine is forcing the continent to shift away from Russian gas and oil, and Norwegians reasonably believe it would be better for a European nation to supply that need rather than rely primarily on shipments from the Middle East or United States. All this spells trouble for climate action. When fighting climate change means substantially changing the way people live or forcing them to take on major costs, Europeans are showing they will resist. Even setting goals to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by seemingly far-off dates such as 2050 wont do. The fact is that developed countries rely so heavily on burning fossil fuels and other carbon intensive industries such as agriculture that even a 30-year phase will impose a massive burden on society, households and key economic sectors. Theres simply no precedent for a democratic nation to make sustained sacrifices in the absence of war. Even traumatic events such as the Great Depression only sparked change that retained much of the precrisis political and economic order. A sensible climate policy would lubricate this tension by focusing less on rapid decarbonization and more on technological development that will make energy transformation affordable. That approach would not stop economically sustainable policies such as subsidies for electric vehicle purchase and replacing fossil-fueled electricity plants with renewables and nuclear power to handle the baseload needs. But it would shift the burden of expensive policies away from those who would struggle to adapt to them. For example, instead of upending the livelihoods of farmers, governments could finance the development of effective, nitrogen-free fertilizers. This would dramatically help the climate without destroying the public support necessary for sustained action. This inevitably means talking about climate change more as a problem to be managed than as a crisis that requires a total restructuring of the economy. The fact that many climate activists angrily reject such language suggests sustainable progress in fighting climate change will remain elusive.