The Maui Fires and Our Wildfire Age
Wildfires on Maui prove once again that the world must face the dawn of the pyrocene. Updated at 9:15 p.m. ET on August 10, 2023 A few days ago, the hurricane forecasts looked good. Dora was going to miss Hawaii, passing by far to the south . And yet the storm still ended up wreaking havoc on the islands, not as a rain-bearing cyclone but as windhot, dry wind, which, as it blew across the island of Maui, met wildfire. A fire with no wind is relatively easy to control; a fire on a gusty day, especially in a dry, mountainous area with a town nearby, is a worst-case scenario for firefighters. And so it was. Fires began burning Tuesday, and by that night, they had reached the tourism hub of Lahaina, eventually burning it flat. Power was knocked out; 911 went down. Residents swam into the cool ocean to avoid the flames . At least 53 people have died so far. Read: Hawaii is a warning This is the worst wildfire event in Hawaiis modern history, in terms of lives lost and structures burned. It is the states version of Californias 2018 Camp Fire; experts I spoke with also compared it to recent fires on the Greek island of Rhodes and a 2017 fire in Sonoma, California, that spilled into the city of Santa Rosa. The Maui fires are another reminder that we have entered a fire agea pyrocene, as the emeritus professor and wildfire expert Stephen J. Pyne has called it . Humans are still figuring out how to live in this new reality, playing catch-up as the world burns around us. Though fires are a natural part of many landscapesand have been for centuriessome areas of fire and smoke science are in their relative infancy. Best practices for mass evacuations in a fire still dont exist ; Mauis evacuation was further complicated by the loss of power , the states lieutenant governor said. Hawaii doesnt have the same history with wildfire as a fire-prone state like California, which means fewer preparations are in place, according to Clay Trauernicht, a fire specialist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. He expressed particular concern about two potential contributing factors to fire in the state: old, poorly maintained former plantations and non-native plant species that increase the fuel loads. In general, dead vegetation fuels fires. On Maui, brush fires spread into a densely built-up area, where homes and other structures fed the blaze; a similar dynamic played out during the Tubbs Fire, in Sonoma County, back in 2017. Once youre going [from] burning building to building, theres not a lot you can do, Trauernicht told me. I asked him whether this was Hawaiis wake-up call to prepare for more intense wildfires in the future. If its not, I dont know whats going to be, honestly, he replied. To see fire weatherhot, dry, windy conditionsin Hawaii this time of year is not unusual, Ian Morrison, a meteorologist in the National Weather Services Honolulu forecast office, told me. The NWS had issued a red-flag warning for the area, which indicates to local residents and officials alike that wildfire potential is high . According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the majority of Maui is also abnormally dry or in drought; the western side in particular was parched, and ripe for a fire. You might think those conditions would have been alleviated by Dora: Hurricanes usually mean water, and wet things do not burn as easily. But even this dynamic is shifting. An investigation by researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa found that 2018s Hurricane Lane brought both fire and rain to Hawaii at the same time, complicating the emergency responsedry and windy conditions spread the fire on the edges of the storm, while elsewhere, rainfall led to landslides. In 2020, researchers pointed out that Lane was only one of three documented cases of a hurricane worsening wildfire risk. With Dora, we likely have a fourth. Read: A clear indication that climate change is burning up California Climate change is projected to make hurricanes and tropical storms worse in the coming years, creating the potential for cascading natural disastersdroughts, wildfires, stormsthat bleed into one another. It has also been shown to worsen fires . The past five years have been littered with stories of unusual fire behavior: Canada burning at an unprecedented rate , Alaskan tundra going up in smoke like never before, Colorados giant December 2021 fire , Californias unthinkable 1-million-acre fire and its deadliest on record all happening within a few years of one another. Youve got different kinds of climate disasters, all reinforcing each other, Mark Lynas, the author of the book Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency , told me. Its all reflective of the fact that as the world heats up, theres just more energy in the system. Water evaporates faster; winds blow stronger; fires get hotter. Lynas, for his part, told me he hadnt thought about this particular dynamic: A hurricane-wildfire connection had never occurred to me. It just shows, really, the kinds of surprises that climate warming can throw up. The Maui fires might be a wake-up call for Hawaii. But perhaps they can also serve as a wake-up call for the rest of us, one of many in recent years. The fire age is raging all around us.