China aims to cut its net carbon-dioxide emissions to zero by 2060
IN A RECORDED video message to the UN General Assembly on September 22nd, Chinas leader, Xi Jinping, made a surprise announcement. He said that as well as aiming to halt the rise of its carbon emissions by 2030much the same goal as five years agoChina would strive for carbon neutrality by 2060. In climate-change jargon, this means achieving a balance between carbon emissions and carbon reduction both technological and natural, such as planting trees. For China to succeed, it must descend from its emissions peak far more rapidly than any other major economy has either succeeded in doing, or has pledged to do. It will be a huge challenge. Under the Paris agreement on climate change, reached in 2015, signatories were required to submit fresh plans for reducing their emissions by the end of this year. Covid-19 has put a spanner in the works. On September 2nd Patricia Espinosa, the UNs chief climate-change official, said she expected about 80 countries to meet the deadline. Before Mr Xis speech, many analysts had predicted that China would not show its hand until after Americas elections in November, when American climate-change policy for the next four years will become clearer. Stung by international criticism of its early handling of the pandemic, China may have decided to reveal its hand earlier to boost its image. But are the targets realistic? China will certainly have no problem ensuring that its emissions reach a peak before 2030. Already in 2014a year before Mr Xi first declared such a goal (around 2030 was the wording then)experts had concluded that the peak could arrive as early as 2025. Indeed, some scientists believe that its emissions from fossil fuelsthe biggest source of human-produced carbonmay have peaked already. The Brookings-Tsinghua Centre for Public Policy, a think-tank in Beijing, reckons they could begin declining in 2025. So Mr Xis reference to a target of 2030 in his speech to the UN was distinctly underwhelming. Aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060 is another matter. Mr Xi had already floated the idea that China might strive for such a goal on September 14th at a video summit with European Union leaders. Though during that call he did not commit to a deadline, his specifying of carbon neutrality as an ambition was a political breakthrough, says a European diplomat. Last year European leaders set a target for climate neutrality by 2050. America has kept silent on the topic. In his UN speech, Mr Xi chose his words carefully. He referred to carbon neutrality by 2060, not climate neutrality. In climate-speak, this suggests the target will apply only to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), not other greenhouse gases such as methane, a big contributor to global warming. The EUs goal for climate neutrality covers all emissions. But China is the source of 27% of global emissions of CO2. Were it to commit formally to the 2060 target, previous forecasts of global warming trends by 2100 would need to be revised. Climate Action Tracker, a research group, had calculated that if all governments were to adhere to their Paris-accord pledges, the planet would warm, on average, by 2.7C by 2100 compared with pre-industrial temperaturesstill a long way off the Paris target of 1.5-2C. Mr Xis announcement, they now say, could knock between 0.2C and 0.3C off this estimate. That would still mean more warming than agreed in Paris, but China is not acting alone. Like China, the EU has not committed formally to its mid-century target. But doing so would have a big impact: the unions CO2 emissions alone account for 10% of the worlds. All eyes are now on American voters. Victory for Joe Biden in the presidential election would mean the worlds top three emittersChina, America and the EU, which account for about 45% of global emissionswould all have similar time-frames for achieving net-zero goals. This would place the warming limit agreed in Paris firmly in reach says Bill Hare of Climate Action Tracker. Mr Xi did not say how China would attain its 2060 goal. American CO2 emissions peaked sometime between 2005 and 2007, then dropped by about 14% in the subsequent decade. The EUs total emissions peaked in 1990 and have since fallen by 21%. The aim is to reduce them by 45% by 2030. That would amount to a near-halving of emissions in four decades. China is implying that it will plunge from peak to near-nothing in just 30 years. Crucially, China has not spelled out whether its new target will cover domestic emissions only, or include the emissions caused by Chinas generous investments in coal outside its borders, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure-building scheme. A new five-year economic plan, to be adopted next year, may provide clues to Chinas plans for ending fossil-fuel dependency. Achieving the 2060 target will require a complete decarbonisation of Chinas electricity supply, more than 60% of which still comes from burning coal. Yet China is still building coal-fired power plants faster than any country. In the first six months of 2020 it built more than 60% of the worlds new installations of them. Carbon-heavy infrastructure being planned and built today could remain usable for decades. Chinas efforts to revive its covid-struck economy include making it easier to secure permits to build such stuff. But China worries about the impact of climate changeit is already plagued by floods and droughts. It can implement changes in ways that some democracies may find hard to replicate. For example, it can increase nuclear-power production without fear of public oppositiongrassroots activism of any kind is suppressed. Its nuclear generating capacity more than doubled in 2014-19 to 48.7GW, according to Bloomberg NEF, an energy think-tank. Even with a big expansion of nuclear energy, it is extremely unlikely that China could meet its target without finding ways of capturing CO2either before it is emitted by power stations or directly from ambient airand storing it underground. No method has yet been found for achieving this at scale. It will also be difficult to make substantial cuts in emissions from industrial processes and heavy transport without yet-to-be-invented technologies. Planting new forests would help absorb carbon, but it would need to be on a colossal scale to make the difference needed. The lack of an obvious road-map makes Mr Xis commitment all the more remarkable. His ambitions will require a new approach to economic development that will need to become obvious soon.