Why climate change is back on the agenda
ON SEPTEMBER 21st Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, joined thousands of people on a march through the streets of New York to demand more action on climate change. Organisers of the march claimed that there were related events in 161 countries. The targets of these global admonitions were more than 100 heads of state and government who will attend a UN summit Mr Ban has convened on September 23rd. The march and the summit come after several years in which climate change has slipped down the international agenda. Why the burst of interest? Since 2009, when the states that are party to the UNs Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) spectacularly failed to forge the grand deal that some had hoped for at a summit in Copenhagen, the appetite for climate discussions at the highest levels has been scant. This can be put down in part to an unwillingness to repeat the unhappiness of Copenhagen and in part to what sociologists refer to as the finite pool of worry: both politicians and voters have had other things on their minds, from the Arab spring to the euro crisis. The fact that the climate has not been getting noticeably worse over the period probably hasnt helped. The main reason for the renewed interest is that, six years on from Copenhagen, the UNFCCC is planning to try again to agree a grand bargain when its members meet in Paris towards the end of next year. The goal of that summit is to set up an agreement limiting greenhouse-gas emissions and co-ordinating action in rich and poor countries that would come into force in 2020. The demonstrations and Mr Bans event in New York are designed as a lead in to this process, a way for politicians to compare the measures they are willing to offer prior to the fixing of more formal negotiating positions early next year. There seems to be a general mood that these Paris negotiations can, unlike Copenhagen, end up with an agreement. America has taken steps to limit greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil-fuel power plants, and China, the worlds largest emitter, has various initiatives under way to reduce and eventually reverse the rate at which its emissions have been rising. A deal that both could sign might command more general assent in Paris. However, to the extent that an agreement is feasible it is also likely to be, by the standards of the marchers, insufficient. They want sharp reductions in emissions now, and that is not something politicians in the biggest economies look set to offer. Dig deeper: A guide to the actions that have done the most to slow global warming (September 2014) Policies to slow down warming may be more attractive if framed as ways of speeding up growth (September 2014) A 2015 UN climate agreement is possible, but it will not be bold (September 2014)