'Waiting for the road to disappear': Tourist haven Marlborough Sounds braces for climate change
Roads drowning under high tides, gardens swamped by the sea, walking tracks closed because of fire risks this is climate change in the Marlborough Sounds. Its a summer playground of 1500km of coasts, where boaties, hikers, and fishing enthusiasts explore a web of small inlets, coves and islands. Sailors have built a new yacht club, because the old one kept flooding , as residents put up makeshift barriers from felled trees in an attempt to buy time from the tide. Locals say there must be long-term options to combat the effects of climate change, without losing the natural value of the Sounds. But exactly how those options will look is uncertain, while the effects are very much here. READ MORE: * Councillor warns councils not to build infrastructure on the coast * Tiny island at edge of Marlborough Sounds at risk of sea level rise * South Canterbury needs to prepare for coastal erosion, climate change * Climate change to make king tides more common - scientist About 2.5 hours drive from Picton, on a tight, twisting road into the Marlborough Sounds, lives 76-year-old Bob Menzies in Crail Bay. Menzies and his wife live on a flat property bought by his parents in 1951, in a house just a few metres from the water. He estimates 800m of land had been eroded away by the sea since the land was surveyed in the late 19th century. "It does happen. What's going to happen in the next 50 years ... this house will be uninhabitable, it will be ruined. Thats a fact of life weve got to live with. Menzies thinks he and his wife wont be around to see that happen. Weve put some enormous logs out there to stop the sea. Its slowed up its progress a bit, it will see us out, he says. When they had a king tide, where a nor west wind coincided with a peak spring tide, it swamped the garden and the surrounding flat land. They had one about 18 months ago, he says. The mess was incredible. A new environment plan in Marlborough predicts climate change will cause more extreme weather events and storm surges, more severe flooding, coastal erosion and will increase the risk of fire. The Marlborough Sounds will be the area worst affected by flood risk, because settlement and infrastructure, like jetties and access tracks, tends to be near the water. Theres also the problem of subsidence. The plan says that as the land gradually sinks, people living in coastal homes will feel the effects of rising sea levels, faster. More frequent extreme weather will also pose a significant risk to infrastructure such as buildings, roads, water, sewerage, electricity transmission and communication systems. The Marlborough Sounds usually sees hordes of tourists cruise through each year witnessing wildlife up close, visiting remote, luxury lodges, or to hike the popular Queen Charlotte Track. An owner of one of those lodges, in the heart of Totaranui/Queen Charlotte Sound, says sea level rise was very much on their minds when they bought the resort a decade ago. Bay of Many Coves owner Nigel Gould said the resort was well above the tidal level, and sheltered behind a natural waterfront, but there were jetties and an attached building which would need to be replaced at some point. Anybody with a fixed jetty recognised the rise in sea level, he says. There's no question it will happen, the only question is with what speed, and with what height. He says the natural value of the Marlborough Sounds should be considered when coastal protection measures were being constructed over the next few decades. Meanwhile, residents living on a road being eroded by the tide say they're also grappling with the effects of climate change. Elie Bay Rd resident Hanneke Kroon estimated the sea swallowed their road every two years, before a seawall was built. If a king tide coincided with a northwesterly storm, the water was pushed over the road, she says. You could not see the difference between the beach and the road, one went into the other, Kroon says. You could see all the jellyfish on the road. They would be left behind when the water receded again. It was just a matter of waiting for the road to disappear all together, she says. Residents placed felled tree trunks along the edge of the road, but these were swept aside in a storm and high tide in 2016. A big chunk of the road went into the sea, Kroon says. They lobbied Marlborough Roads to take action, and in 2018, a seawall was constructed which residents hoped would see them through the next few years. Niwa coastal and estuarine scientist Dr Rob Bell says reports of similar coastal flooding are being observed throughout the country, and can be attributed to ongoing sea level rise. The base sea level in New Zealand had risen by about 20cm over the last century. All those coastal processes, whether they be tides, wave, tsunamis, storms ... ride on the back of a higher base sea level. If you keep ratcheting up the mean sea level, then all of those processes including king tides, get ratcheted up higher as well. If youve got a property thats been developed at a fixed land level, but your ocean processes are going up, then obviously the overlap occurs more frequently over the land and becomes more noticeable. How to resolve this without impacting the natural value of a place is a complex question, he says. Hard, engineered structures such as seawalls have adverse environmental effects. If communities had room to work with nature they could look at options like adding sand, building up dune systems, planting and beach nourishment, but a lot of coastal development was built hard up against the coast and didnt have that buffer room, he says. In those cases, there were two options: Youve just got to put up the walls, hunker down and hope it doesnt come over the top, which it probably will at some point. Or you retreat. Rob Schuckard, who lives near French Pass in the Marlborough Sounds, says his house is usually 50m to 100m away from the water, but during ex-cyclones Fehi and Gita in February 2018, the water was running under the house. Cyclone Fehi and Gita basically elevated the water levels here to a point that has never been seen before, Schuckard says. That was kind of a warning that things are changing. Schuckard viewed the cyclones as a warning call and is now considering what measures to take to protect his home. Were still in a thinking mode. He says it is crucial to avoid hard boundaries, which would negatively impact coastal biodiversity. Its important for us to think on all these topics, and make sure there is not suddenly a concrete wall and everything we so dearly appreciate in our coastal environment is suddenly not welcome any more. He believes the question of how to avoid hard boundaries should be integrated into any action to combat the effects of climate change on the coast. Council has a dual role here, to protect the citizens, but also to maintain the coastal biodiversity. What kind of engineering approaches are required to fulfil both objectives is arguably the most important role they have. He believes maintaining the natural landscape and character of the Marlborough Sounds is vital for tourism. Residents like Schuckard may get a chance to have their say. The Proposed Marlborough Environment Plan, which sets out council policies for the next decade, has a focus on enabling and educating people to respond to the adverse effects of climate change. Policies include undertaking a collaborative engagement process to work out what assets and infrastructure are under threat from inundation from rising sea levels and storm surges. Sea level rise must be considered in both new and existing developments, and flood hazards will be monitored, the plan says. How the Sounds can keep its character, and defend itself, remains a work-in-progress.