Long-term thinking needed on climate change - report
New research shows more weight should be given to tougher, longer-term decisions taking into account the future effects of climate change. The New Zealand work calls for an end to "siloed" thinking, and a better understanding of how impacts such as flooding and drought have knock-on effects through the economy and daily lives. "By responding only to single impact events as they happen - our adaptation choices will increase risks to society," said Dr Judy Lawrence, a Senior Research Fellow at Victoria University's Climate Change Research Institute. As a simple example, the researchers questioned whether a short-term measure to build a new sea wall to protect homes, was less wise in the long-run, than moving communities to higher ground. READ MORE: * Five myths about climate change * Kiwis fighting climate change: Small changes can make a big difference * New Zealand's out-sized climate change contribution * Climate change was behind 15 weather disasters in 2017 The researchers call the scenario "Cascading impacts", with the team including Paula Blackett from NIWA and Nick Cradock-Henry from Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research. The report looks at possible "triggers" that could lead to longer-term decisions that reduce risks to homes and public infrastructure. These included the role of insurance, with that sector likely to be less willing to insure buildings and subdivisions approved in areas known to be at risk from climate change. "The sector flagged that a change to the insurance business model could make a clearer link between insurance, and planning to avoid future damage," the report said. "If I cannot get insurance, then my perception of the feasible options narrows quite significantly," said one council advisor quoted by researchers. Likewise local bodies could also steer future development away from risk areas. "Councils' willingness to withdraw services or not maintain protection levels as the risk increases, are levers available to councils within what is legally possible." The report questioned the long-term merits of simply re-instating infrastructure such as power and other lifelines as quickly as possible after storms, rather than re-designing systems. "There are limits to such a strategy over the long term, as most utilities are in place above and under the ground for much longer, servicing communities that are permanent once built." The research argues that decisions about land use and future infrastructure need to avoid adding to the legacy of cascading climate impacts as they increase. A need for new shared funding involving both central and local government, and the private sector is highlighted. One "cascade" example looks at the effect of increasingly frequent flooding in some areas, on stormwater systems which can have a knock-on effect of damaging roads and drinking-water pipes. "Frustration builds within the community from repeated flooding, the disruption and cost of evacuations, and the inability of organisations to cope. "The ability to address changing climate risk profiles requires funding models to navigate local government debt limits and rating limitations." More community engagement is urged, to shift decision making from short-term measures to long-term ones. "Protection breeds ongoing expectations of protection, which may, at least in coastal areas, have short-term benefits for current property owners, but make it more difficult for future generations to make adjustments." The research said the country's current institutions have failed to adapt processes to take into account "the irreversibility of change in the environment". "Pressure for rapid housing to meet increasing demand has seen new developments located in low-lying and coastal areas, such as Bay of Plenty, Thames-Coromandel and Nelson - facilitated by special legislation that appears to operate outside the hazards and climate provisions in the RMA." The researchers say the cascading scenario that they have explored, needs to be adopted to change the cycle of responding to single impacts, and overlooking the compounding effects and higher cost in the future.