The real cost of climate change: Global warming could cost the world up to $24 TRILLION over the...
could cost the world up to $24 trillion (19 trillion) over the next 36 years, a concerning new study warns. Researchers think that by 2060 economic disruptions will have 'cascaded' through multiple industries such as tourism, transport, food production and healthcare. Heatwaves making it too hot for crops to grow will cost the industry billions, while will require expensive new infrastructure to be built. What's more, health costs will come from people suffering from heat exposure, while work stoppages will impact businesses . Many climate studies have looked at how many , but this new study considers the knock-on effects in the global . The new study was led by Professor Dabo Guan at University College London's Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, who called the economic impacts of climate change 'staggering'. 'These losses get worse the more the planet warms, and when you factor in the effects on global supply chains it shows how everywhere is at economic risk,' he said. Climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions include droughts, wildfires, sea levels rising, more intense heatwaves and extreme weather events such as tropical storms. The researchers point out that the implications of such events will ripple from one industry to another because they are all interconnected. If countries become too hot or suffer climate-related disasters like flooding, tourists will be less inclined to visit which will hurt the country's economy. The study points to the Dominican Republic as a place that will see a decline in its tourism as its climate grows too warm to attract holidaymakers. Industries in the country that are reliant on tourism include manufacturing, construction, insurance, financial services and electronic equipment. Meanwhile climate change is expected to make it too hot for crops to grow and more vulnerable to disease by facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains. For the study, the team looked at expected economic losses across three projected global warming scenarios, called 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs) based on low, medium and high projected global emissions levels In the best case scenario, the world shifts toward a 'more sustainable path', greenhouse gas emissions are curbed and global temperatures rise by only 2.7F (1.5C) over preindustrial levels by 2060. In a 'middle of the road' scenario, which most experts believe Earth is on now, climate trends do not really shift from historical patterns and global temperatures rise by around 5.4F (3C). But in the dreaded worse case scenario, humans live in a world of 'rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use' and global temperatures rise by a hefty 12.6F (7C). Projected economic losses will be nearly five times as much under the highest emissions path than the lowest, the team think. Depending on how much greenhouse gas is emitted, the team estimate net economic losses of between $3.75 trillion (2.9 trillion) and $24.7 trillion (19.2 trillion) by 2060. Total losses in gross domestic product (GDP) will amount to 0.8 per cent under 2.7F of warming, two per cent under 5.4F of warming and 3.9 per cent under 12.6F of warming. Future extreme heat is likely to cost Europe and the US about 2.2 per cent and about 3.5 per cent of their GDP respectively under the high emission scenario. The UK would lose about 1.5 per cent of its GDP, with chemical products, tourism and electrical equipment industries suffering the greatest losses. The study also reports that 2060 will see 24 per cent more days of extreme heatwaves even under the lowest path and an additional 590,000 heatwave deaths annually. But under the highest path there would be more than twice as many heatwaves and an expected 1.12 million additional annual heatwave deaths. These impacts will not be evenly distributed around the world, but countries situated near to the equator will bear the brunt of climate change, particularly developing countries. Already, developing countries especially those in Africa such as Uganda and Malawi suffer disproportionate economic losses compared to their carbon emissions. The experts conclude that global supply chains should start putting an emphasis on efficiency and climate resilience rather than on efficiency. As , governments will be forced to think about how the financial risks of climate can be mitigated. 'A concerted global strategy to reduce emissions will not only directly protect many people in developing economies from direct economic losses of heat stress but will also maintain resilient and efficient global supply chains and contribute to the long-term, sound development of the global economy,' they team say. The new study has been published today in .