Manmade climate change effect on weather now as powerful as El Nino phenomenon, meteorologists warn | The Independent
World on course for above-average temperatures even without impact of warming weather patterns The impact of the human-driven climate crisis is now as powerful as the Pacific Ocean El Nino weather phenomenon, which naturally pushes up temperatures when it occurs roughly every four years. Many parts of the world are now likely to see above-average temperatures in the coming months, even without 2020 becoming an El Nino year, the World Meteorological Organisation has said. The impact of human-induced climate change is now as powerful as that from a major natural force of nature, said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas. The WMO said it estimates there is a 60 per cent chance of neutral conditions during March-May 2020, with neither an El Nino, nor its opposite, La Nina, forming which would raise or lower temperatures. The naturally occurring phenomena are known collectively as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Getty AFP/Getty AP AFP/Getty AFP/Getty Getty Getty Getty PA AFP/Getty Reuters Carlo Frem/Amazon AFP/Getty AFP/Getty AFP/Getty Jeroen Much/Andras Schuh Ma Weiwei AFP/Getty AFP/Getty Getty El Nino has a warming influence on global temperatures and is also linked to heavy rains, floods and droughts. La Nina lowers temperatures. The WMO said there is a 35 per cent chance of an El Nino and only a 5 per cent chance of a La Nina weather pattern developing this year. But despite the likely absence of an El Nino, the WMO warned there will still be above-average sea surface temperatures in many parts of the world, which will lead to higher than normal land temperatures, particularly in the tropics. Mr Taalas said: Even ENSO neutral months are warmer than in the past, as air and sea surface temperatures and ocean heat have increased due to climate change. With more than 90 per cent of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases going into the ocean, ocean heat content is at record levels. Thus, 2016 was the warmest year on record as a result of a combination of a strong El Nino and human-induced global warming. 2019 was the second-warmest year on record, even though there was no strong El Nino. He added: We just had the warmest January on record. The signal from human-induced climate change is now as powerful as that from a major natural force of nature. Already this year, January has broken records to become the warmest ever recorded. Norway saw its hottest January day since records began, with a reading of 19C more than 25C above the monthly average measured in the village of Sunndalsora, which is around 250 miles north of Oslo. Weather stations in central and southern Finland also recorded their warmest January in the period since at least 1961, according to the European Unions Copernicus Climate Change service. This week the Finnish Meteorological Institute revealed the capital, Helsinki, experienced the first ever January - February period on record without any measurable snow. Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today. Log in New to The Independent? Or if you would prefer: Want an ad-free experience? Hi {{indy.fullName}}