Climate change apathy, not denial, is the biggest threat to our planet
The easy way to cut emissions closing coal power stations is exhausted. Now the public has to be convinced to make sacrifices T hree years after world leaders signed the Paris climate agreement , were about to better understand what that deal means for how we live our lives. On Monday, a major report from the UNs climate science panel will set out what it will take to limit global warming to 1.5C, the key Paris target. There are reasons to think the world is, finally, getting to grips with climate change. Carbon emissions are still rising but more slowly than before, and in many countries theyre falling. The UK has slashed its emissions to 19th-century levels, and were not alone plenty of other countries, including the US, are making progress as well. Crucially, thats happened without many people noticing, suggesting the world might be able to deal with the problem without having to persuade the public to change their polluting lifestyles. But this is wishful thinking. The UKs recent emissions cuts have mostly come from shutting coal power stations , which had few friends, and there arent many left to close. And that only happened after years of campaigning, but it was still much easier than what is to come. Cutting emissions further to stop dangerous warming will depend on people changing how they live: flying less and eating less meat and dairy , for example. Theres no way this can be done as quietly as whats been achieved so far. Persuading people to cut down on things they enjoy for the sake of the climate might seem impossible. In most European countries , about three-quarters of the public say theyre worried about climate change, yet less than a third would accept higher taxes on fossil fuels to cut emissions. But this climate apathy can be overcome if its tackled in the right way. The first step is to understand the psychology behind apathy. Climate change is exactly the kind of threat our minds arent equipped to worry about. It seems distant, happening mostly in the future and to other people. The widespread tendency to think Ill be OK, known as optimism bias , makes it easier for people to assume such distant problems wont affect them. Partisanship is a problem, too. Arguments about climate change are often polarised between left and right, and the public widely see it as a left issue. This is a problem because people are more likely to believe what they hear from those they identify with, and to reject what they hear from others. If they usually hear about climate change from leftwing people, the majority will tend to think its not for them. The distance between emissions and their effects also makes it harder to feel guilty or outraged about them. Its easy enough to be angry when a crime has an identifiable victim, and to feel ashamed when we are at fault. But climate change is double-blind: everyones emissions go into the same atmosphere and no one knows in advance who exactly will suffer. Burning fossil fuels isnt a victimless crime, but its not instinctively obvious who the culprits and the victims are. And there are more psychological barriers. Cutting emissions requires people to trust authorities to be competent, honest and fair a tall order at a time when only a third of people say they trust government. Those authorities have to persuade the public to change how they live. But most people dont like change, favour the status quo and are averse to losing what they have. This is compounded by the fear that others might be freeloading on our efforts. Studies confirm what we might guess: people lose motivation when they think others arent pulling their weight its known as the sucker effect . Yet, daunting though these barriers are, they can be beaten with political leadership and honesty. To start with, the international community has to admit its plans arent enough. Commitments to cut emissions, such as the Paris Agreement and the UKs Climate Change Act, give the impression the problem is under control. It isnt. The UK is set to miss its targets from the mid-2020s, while global plans are so weak they would, even if achieved, leave us on course for dangerous warming. In a year in which extreme weather has battered every part of the planet, it shouldnt be hard to demolish the belief that climate change is someone elses problem. Those in the centre and right of politics who want serious action to be taken should be more prominent in the debate. You dont have to agree with a Conservative about how to cut emissions to see that the issue looks more pressing when it cant be dismissed as the special interest of one political faction. But everything rests on showing that the process is fair. When Donald Trump announced the US would pull out of the Paris agreement, he said it was because the deal was unfair , not because climate change itself was a hoax. Success depends not only on showing he was wrong about how the effort is shared between countries, but also on showing the effort is being shared fairly at home. Governments must be smarter than just taxing pollution they will fail if most people have to change what they eat and where they go on holiday, while the rich can buy their way out of any sacrifices and they have to be transparent about how they are sharing the burden fairly. It wont be all burden, though. Cutting emissions could bring benefits including clean air, new forests and well-insulated homes. Research suggests these can be the most persuasive arguments for climate action. The BBC TV programme Blue Planet II transformed how we think about the impact consuming plastic has on the planet. Since its broadcast last year, we have had a tougher plastic bag tax , a ban on microbeads , calls for a latte levy on disposable cups, and supermarkets racing to scrap plastic packaging . This happened because it made us face up to the way our lives contradict our values. The show first made us fall in love with the oceans, before confronting us with what were doing to them: albatrosses, turtles and whales choking on the rubbish we each of us, personally throw away. But Blue Planet II didnt produce a similar outcry about climate change. That may not seem a problem so long as there are emissions cuts that dont rely on people in vast numbers changing how they live. But as the world faces up to what it will take to limit warming to 1.5C, its clear this road is running out. Theres no way to stop dangerous warming that doesnt involve the public. Leo Barasi is the author of The Climate Majority: Apathy and Action in an Age of Nationalism , published by New Internationalist