Bananas have BENEFITED from climate change over the last 60 years but yields may soon decline
'Yes, we have no bananas' may be sung again as experts warn that while may have been increasing yields to date, this trend may soon drop off. Researchers studied the past and predicted impact of global warming on desert bananas in 27 banana-producing countries. They found that average yields had increased with rising temperatures since 1961, but numbers of the fruit may be significantly diminished by 2050. Bananas are considered by many to be the most important fruit crop, with millions of people worldwide dependant on them for food, nutrition and income. In Britain alone, for example, more than five billion bananas are purchased every year accounting for a seven per cent split of the fruit's global export market. Bioscientists Varun Varm and Dan Bebber of the University of Exeter examined the recent and predicted future impacts of climate change on the world's leading dessert banana producers and exporters. The team focused on 27 countries that make up around 86 per cent of the world's dessert banana producers. Rising temperatures brought about by climate change has fostered more favourable growing conditions, with yields having increased since 1961, the researchers found. If climate change continues at its expected rate, however, this boost to banana crop yield is likely to be drastically reduced or may even disappear completely come the year 2050. In total, it is predicted that ten countries will see a significant decline in yields, among which are India the world's largest producer and consumer of bananas and Brazil, which is the fourth largest producer of the popular fruit. Little research has been done previously in the impact of global warming and shifting precipitation rates on bananas, with most studies focusing on other crops like maize, rice and wheat. 'Were very concerned about the impact of diseases like Fusarium Wilt on bananas, but the impacts of climate change have been largely ignored,' said Dr Bebber. 'There will be winners and losers in coming years, and our study may stimulate vulnerable countries to prepare through investment in technologies like irrigation'. The study does note that some countries including biggest banana exporter Ecuador, Honduras and a number of African nations may continue to see an overall boost to their banana crop yields. Understanding the likely future impacts of climate change on banana production is key to ensuring the long-term survival of the fruit and the market that depends on it, the researchers argue. 'It is imperative that we invest in preparing tropical agriculture for future climate change', added Dr Bebber. This will particularly vital for countries like Ecuador and Costa Rica, where bananas and their derived products make up the second largest agricultural exports. 'An open exchange of ideas is going to be critical going forward,' said Dr Varma. 'We believe practical solutions already exist, but these are scattered across banana producing countries.' 'This knowledge exchange needs to start now to counteract predicted yield losses due to climate change.' The full findings of the study were published in the journal .