The 89 biggest threats to life in Britain: Another pandemic, Russian disruption to oil supplies,...
The full list of 89 major threats facing Britain include another pandemic, Russian disruption to energy supplies and was publicly released today. Designed to help Britain prepare for 'worst-case scenarios', a new Government report entitled the 'National Risk Register' highlights the dangers posed from 89 risks, ranging from to cyber attacks. The impact of each risk has been assessed by factors such as the potential number of lives lost and financial cost, while the likelihood of each risk has been determined using extensive data modelling and expert analysis. Another pandemic would be 'catastrophic' and could kill 840,000 people, the report says, with the chance of one estimated at between 5 and 25 per cent. The report states that experts consider a respiratory pathogen to be 'the most likely cause of a future pandemic affecting the UK' echoing the coronavirus crisis. In a 'reasonable worst-case scenario', an 'unmitigated' respiratory pandemic with 4 per cent of symptomatic infections requiring hospital care and a case fatality ratio of 2.5 per cent would lead to half of the UK's population falling ill. It would last for at least nine months, with about 1.34million people estimated to require hospital treatment, possibly resulting in up to 840,000 deaths in the UK, the report states. In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the potential threat of disruption to global energy supplies has also been included as one of the newly public risks in the 2023 list. However, its likelihood and impact are relatively low, having been assessed at between 0.2 per cent and 1 per cent and 'moderate' respectively. The latest register also warns that advances in artificial intelligence systems and their capabilities have 'a number of implications spanning chronic and acute risks'. It states that AI 'could cause an increase in harmful misinformation and disinformation, or if handled improperly, reduce economic competitiveness'. The malicious use of drones is another potential threat to be made public in the list. The register is the most transparent since its original publication in 2008, sharing some previously classified information. It also takes into account recent high-profile events in considering risks. The Government cites the murder of Conservative MP Sir David Amess in its assessment of the assassination of a public figure, for which it says there is a likelihood of more than 25 per cent. The register measures likelihood on a scale of one to five with above 25 per cent the highest score, but says this is because 'all risks' considered 'are relatively low likelihood events'. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said last night: 'This is the most comprehensive risk assessment we've ever published, so that government and our partners can put robust plans in place and be ready for anything. 'One of those rising risks is energy security. 'We've installed the first turbine at the future world's largest offshore windfarm, which will provide secure, low-cost and clean energy for the British people - enabling us to stand up to Putin's energy ransom.' Mr Dowden will today visit energy supplier SSE's Able Seaton Port facility to launch the new list. It comes as the first 260 metre-high wind turbines are installed at Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which the renewables company is overseeing, which ministers say will increase the UK's energy independence. Matt Collins, the deputy National Security Adviser, said: 'A comprehensive understanding of the risks we face is critical to keeping the UK safe. 'This edition of the NRR, based on the Government's internal, classified risk assessment offers even more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks facing the UK; ranging from terrorism to conflicts and natural disasters.'